The first gold medal for women’s canoe in nearly 100 years of Olympic paddling history, won by American Nevin Harrison. A fourth gold-studded Olympics for the GOAT, Kiwi kayaker Lisa Carrington. Hungarian domination of men’s K1 events by Sandor Totka, Balint Kopasz, and Adam Varga. The last Olympics to feature the 200 metre distance for kayakers. That was Tokyo.

What history will be made for sprint paddlers in Paris?

Women’s K1 500m: The biggest rivalry, and a new Olympic record (probably)

The most exciting rivalry to watch this week is between two athletes on the same team. The legendary Lisa Carrington won her first Olympic gold medal at London 2012, and remained undefeated for years: first in the 200m, then in the 500m. Until her own teammate, Aimee Fisher, beat her at New Zealand nationals in April 2022. Once she proved she could win, Aimee ran with it: she bested Lisa again at the World Cups in May. In Szeged, Aimee won in 1:46.19, less than half a second ahead of Lisa. In Poznan, they finished just 0.05 seconds apart.

Aimee is raring for the win, but she also wants to get an Olympic Best and perhaps world record time: she has said, “I want to do 1:45”. But Fisher and Carrington don’t necessarily have the top two spots locked up. Tamara (Tami) Csipes from Hungary has already done 1:45. Csipes earned the silver medal in Tokyo just 0.64 seconds behind Carrington. In June, she claimed Hungary’s K1 500m slot in Paris when she raced a 01:45.536 on the course in Szeged, nearly two seconds ahead of her Olympic teammate Alida Dora Gazso. So far, the course at Vaires sur Marnes in Paris is looking quick – most days it’s been warm and flat, and during the first day of sprint racing, team boats were favoured by a nice tailwind. With conditions and competitors like these, we could see Fisher, Carrington, and Csipes all finish with a 1:45. In what order? Too close to call.

There’s a few big names racing against these top three who could easily pick them off if something goes wrong. Emma Aastrand Jorgensen, from Denmark, won the bronze medal in Tokyo and has finished top 3 in recent world cups and world championships. Hungary calls her Tami Csipes’ “biggest European rival”. Fourth place in Tokyo was Hungarian Danuta Kozak, another legend of the sport – she didn’t make the team this year but her teammate Alida Dora Gazso could also threaten a top position close to Csipes. Gazso DNS’d at the 2023 World Cup in Paris and hasn’t been present on the international stage since then, but her result at Hungarian team trials was strong enough to put her near the top.

Hermien Peters (BEL), Alyce Wood (AUS), Linnea Stensils (SWE), and Milica Novakovic (SRB) could also be paddlers to watch out for. Teresa Portela from Spain (not the Teresa Portela from Portugal), who won silver behind Carrington in the 200m race in Tokyo, is in K4 but won’t be racing singles in Paris. Her younger teammate Begona Lazkano has taken the mantle for Spain, but will have to work hard to fight against these legends of the sport.

Men’s K1 1000m: A repeat of Tokyo?

The 2024 Olympic showdown in men’s kayak singles is looking so similar to the Tokyo Olympics as to be nearly identical. From the A Final in Tokyo, the only competitor not returning to Paris in K1 is Jacob Schopf. Germany has sent his teammates Jakob Thordsen and Anton Winkelmann instead while Schopf focuses on the team boats. The change-out goes to show the incredibly deep bench of the highest tier of paddlers in Germany: Schopf is still very quick, but Thordsen has had a particularly strong season and should finish in the top five if not higher.

Balint Kopasz and Adam Varga from Hungary, who took gold and silver in Tokyo, are back again. The Hungarians have remained on top of their game in recent races, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them both medal again. Their main competition remains Fernando Pimenta, the legend from Portugal. Pimenta has medaled in almost every race he’s done since 2013. He’s dominated the 1000m distance for so long that when you hear “men’s 1000m k1”, Pimenta is probably the first name that comes to mind. At the May World Cup in Szeged, Pimenta finished behind Kopasz and Varga but they were all within 1.5 seconds. I’d happily place a bet that these three will medal, but Kopasz and Varga will have to race in top form to keep Pimenta in third, and he’ll certainly be fighting for the gold.

From the final in Tokyo, Josef Dostal (CZE), Dong Zhang (CHN), Thomas Green (AUS), and Agustin Vernice (ARG) will all be returning for Paris. Dostal is having another great season, and should place well in Paris – should any of the top three slip up, he’ll be right there. Maxime Beaumont (FRA) could be in the mix too: he’s placed well at recent races and will have the backing of an enthusiastic French crowd. Francisco Cubelos (ESP) is another one to watch, as is Rene Holten Poulsen (DEN).

Women’s C1 200m: Are we due for a shake-up?

Since women’s canoeing debuted in Tokyo (women were not allowed to race canoes at the Olympics until then), the top names in the sport have remained relatively consistent. But recent race results suggest a potential shake-up. After winning the gold medal at age 19 in Tokyo, USA paddler Nevin Harrison acknowledged that she found herself in “a super dark place.” The isolation of competing in Tokyo during the global pandemic on top of such a quick rise to the top at a young age presented challenges for Harrison, plus she faced bout of “post-Olympic blues”, a common experience amongst top athletes that has also been labelled “gold medal syndrome”. She’s been working hard to stay mentally and physically fit to aim for another win in Paris.

Nevin has only raced a few times internationally since her Olympic win, and her most recent results don’t seem to show her full potential. At the Szeged World Cup in May, Nevin pulled a 45.33 in the heats – a faster time than the 45.93 that won her gold medal in Tokyo. In fact, it was the fastest time of the day. But in the A Final, she finished 9th in 47.13. Canadian Katie Vincent took first in that race, finishing in 45.54. Did Nevin just have fast conditions for her heat, and the other canoeists are getting quicker? Or does she have more speed in her than she showed?

Aside from Nevin, the favourite for the gold medal is looking like Katie Vincent. Katie ranked second for many years to her Canadian teammate, the women’s canoe pioneer Laurence Vincent-Lapointe. Vincent and Vincent-Lapointe (no relation) won a bronze medal together in Tokyo in the C2 500m event, where Vincent-Lapointe also won a silver medal in C1. Laurence retired after Tokyo, and Katie Vincent has easily picked up the top spot in Canada as well as internationally. Katie has medalled in almost every event she’s raced since Tokyo across both C1 and C2, and in C1 she’s only lost to Wenjun Lin (CHN) and Yarisleidis Duboys (CUB).

Lin and Duboys will both be aiming for medals in Paris, and after strong results in this year’s races, they look like top contenders. Several other familiar names from Tokyo will be in the mix as well, including Liudmyla Luzan (UKR) who won bronze in Tokyo, Dorota Borowska (POL) who was 4th in Tokyo, Antia Jacome (ESP) who was 5th in Tokyo, Maria Mailliard (CHI), and Vincent’s teammate Sophia Jensen (CAN). Borowska made the news when she was flagged for a doping violation just days before the Olympics, but the International Testing Agency (ITA) has ruled “no fault”. Borowska won on appeal based on a medication administered to her dog. Shortly before the Tokyo Olympics, Laurence Vincent-Lapointe also went through a public reckoning over her supposed doping violation, which was found to have been an accident based on supplements her then-boyfriend was taking (source). On the men’s side, Serghei Tsarnovschi in men’s canoe was ruled to have violated the anti-doping code and was suspended for four years, but ultimately faced little penalty as he was able to return for the Tokyo Olympics and will be racing again in Paris.

It’s hard to say how the women’s C1 race will go since results have been a bit less consistent than other classes – at the moment, it looks like medals could be up for grabs from any of the top paddlers in Paris. 

Men’s C1 1000m: Can Isaquias repeat the gold?

In men’s canoe, gold medalist Isaquias Guimaraes Queiroz (formerly Queiroz dos Santos) will be back to defend his title for Brazil. Liu Hao (CHN) and Serghei Tarnovschi (MDA) who took silver and bronze in Tokyo will be looking to medal again. Hao has been more focused on C2 than C1 in recent international races, and already set an Olympic Best C2 500m time on Tuesday with partner Bowen Ji in the first day of heats. No doubt he’ll be in good form for the C1.

Martin Fuksa (CZE) finished 5th in Tokyo, but he has been having a strong season and could take a medal in Paris. He won the C1 men’s 1000m at the Paris World Cup last year and finished in second place just 0.2 seconds behind Catalin Chirila (ROU) at the European Olympic Qualifiers earlier this year. Chirila will be in the mix for a top position, as will Frenchman Adrien Bart. The French crowd has been making themselves heard in the stands, so they could give Bart the extra motivation to take a medal on his home turf. Balazs Adolf (HUN), Connor Fitzpatrick (CAN), Wiktor Glazunow (POL), and of course the legend Sebastian Brendel (GER) are all worth keeping a close eye on as well.

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